Full Report
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered sweeping international isolation for Russia and stretched the nation’s resources. Nonetheless, Moscow has intensified its engagement with several countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). A new RAND paper examines Russia’s activities in LAC—specifically in Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Brazil—and how these activities have advanced…
Analysis Summary
# Threat Actor: Russian State-Sponsored Entities (Moscow)
## Attribution & Identity
- **Actor Identification:** Russian Government / Moscow-directed state actors.
- **Aliases:** Not explicitly named in the text (though typically associated with groups like APT28, APT29, or Sandworm in broader intelligence contexts).
- **Known Associations:** The article highlights strategic alignment and coordination with the governments of Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Brazil.
## Activity Summary
Following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has intensified its engagement in the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region. Key activities include:
- **Diplomatic & Strategic Expansion:** Deepening ties with regional partners to counter international isolation and promote an anti-Western "multipolar world order."
- **Influence Operations:** Marshalling support in the Global South for Russia's unlawful territorial claims and geopolitical narratives.
- **Hybrid Engagement:** Utilizing opportunistic political and economic engagements to maintain influence despite resource constraints caused by the war in Ukraine.
## Tactics, Techniques & Procedures
- **Geopolitical Influence Operations:** Leveraging existing regional partnerships to bypass international sanctions and isolation.
- **Strategic Cooperation:** Establishing direct connections between regional developments and U.S. homeland security interests.
- **Multi-Vector Engagement:** Combining diplomatic, economic, and potentially information-based activities to challenge U.S. hemispheric interests.
- **MITRE ATT&CK IDs:** None explicitly mentioned in the provided text.
## Targeting
- **Sectors:** Government, Defense, and International Relations.
- **Geography:** Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), specifically:
- Cuba
- Venezuela
- Nicaragua
- Brazil
- **Victims:** U.S. hemispheric interests and regional stability.
## Tools & Infrastructure
- **Malware families used:** Not specified in this strategic overview.
- **Infrastructure:** Not specified; focus is on state-level diplomatic and strategic infrastructure.
## Implications
- **Threat Assessment:** Russia remains a persistent threat in the Western Hemisphere, demonstrating that neither the war in Ukraine nor international isolation has neutralized its ability to project power far from home.
- **Strategic Risks:** The deepening of Russian ties in the LAC region serves to erode U.S. influence, provides a platform for anti-Western sentiment, and complicates U.S. national security due to the intersection of Russian influence with Chinese and Iranian activities in the same region.
## Mitigations
- **Holistic Assessment:** The U.S. government should assess Russian activities in the Western Hemisphere holistically, rather than in isolation.
- **Regional Monitoring:** Increased monitoring of the direct connections between LAC regional developments and their effects on the U.S. homeland.
- **Counter-Influence Strategy:** Developing integrated responses that account for the overlapping influence of Russia, China, and Iran in the region.