Full Report
Explore the 2026 US violent extremism threat landscape. This report analyzes rising risks from HVEs, DVEs, and Iran-nexus actors to public and private sector entities.
Analysis Summary
In accordance with the 2026 US violent extremism threat landscape report, the summary is structured as follows:
# Threat Actor: 2026 US Violent Extremist Groups (Combined)
## Attribution & Identity
The threat landscape is composed of three primary categories of actors:
* **HVEs (Homegrown Violent Extremists):** Individuals inspired by foreign terrorist groups like the Islamic State (IS).
* **DVEs (Domestic Violent Extremists):** US-based actors including:
* **AGAAVEs:** Anti-Government/Anti-Authority Violent Extremists (e.g., Militia Violent Extremists).
* **AVEs:** Anarchist Violent Extremists.
* **Neo-Nazi Accelerationists:** Individuals seeking the destruction of Western civilization.
* **Iran-Nexus Actors:** Financially motivated, low-sophistication threat actors directed or inspired by the Iranian government.
## Activity Summary
* **Projected Surge (2026):** Heightened threat levels driven by the secondary effects of the Iran War and the 2026 US midterm elections.
* **Mass-Casualty Plots:** Increased activity from IS-inspired HVEs, peaking between October 2026 and January 2027.
* **Political Assassinations:** Ongoing campaigns by AGAAVEs targeting government officials and high-profile public figures.
* **Sabotage/Arson:** Direct action by AVEs against infrastructure and facility-based targets using destructive devices.
## Tactics, Techniques & Procedures
* **Mass-Casualty Attacks:** Utilization of indiscriminate violence in public spaces (primarily HVE/IS supporters).
* **Targeted Assassination:** Pursuit of high-profile public officials by units motivated by partisan animus.
* **Sabotage & Destructive Devices:** Use of arson and "increasingly sophisticated" destructive devices against facilities.
* **Critical Infrastructure Attacks:** Sabotage efforts driven by neo-Nazi accelerationist instructional materials.
* **Hand-to-Hand Training:** Utilized by "White supremacist active clubs" for violent confrontation.
* **Low-Sophistication Proxy Operations:** Iran’s reliance on third-party, financially motivated individuals for preliminary attack planning.
## Targeting
* **Sectors:** Foreign policy decision-making, Immigration Enforcement, Military/Defense, Critical Infrastructure, and Private Sector entities involved in foreign policy.
* **Geography:** Primarily the United States (domestic).
* **Victims:**
* US Government and Military personnel.
* High-profile public officials/figures.
* Israeli government and military facilities within the US.
* Private sector entities associated with US foreign policy and military operations.
## Tools & Infrastructure
* **Instructional Propaganda:** Ideological and tactical manuals produced by neo-Nazi accelerationist networks.
* **Online Communication Platforms:** Extensive use of encrypted and open-source platforms for recruitment and radicalization.
* **Financial Incentives:** Use of monetary rewards to recruit low-level actors for Iran-nexus plots.
* **Destructive Devices:** Improvised explosive or incendiary devices (primarily used by AVEs).
## Implications
* **Strategic Risk:** The conclusion of the Iran War has not lessened the threat; rather, the sociopolitical grievances stemming from the war serve as a force multiplier for domestic radicalization.
* **Political Catalyst:** The 2026 midterm election cycle is expected to exacerbate partisan animus, leading to a likely peak in domestic extremist violence in late 2026.
* **Capability Assessment:** While Iran-nexus activities are currently limited by "capability gaps" and law enforcement intervention, the risk from self-radicalized domestic actors (HVEs/DVEs) is significantly higher due to their familiarity with local geography and targets.
## Mitigations
* **Physical Security:** Hardening of facilities associated with US foreign policy, immigration enforcement, and critical infrastructure.
* **Executive Protection:** Enhanced security protocols for high-profile public officials and government decision-makers.
* **Intelligence Monitoring:** Organizations should utilize Recorded Future Intelligence Operations or similar platforms to monitor HVE/DVE communications for localized threat signals.
* **Supply Chain Awareness:** Private sector entities must assess their public associations with government military or foreign policy operations, as these increase their profile as a target.